The mystery of China’s growth how big is the impact of demographic dividend on economic growth melia kreiling

The mystery of China’s growth: how big is the impact of demographic dividend on economic growth? Abstract: in the past few decades, China’s rapid development, and the "demographic dividend" has much to do? Is there a simple and inevitable relationship between population growth and economic growth in a country? The | Zhu day "demographic dividend" was demographers using academic vocabulary, but in China has become a daily language. The following statement will hear people in the media and ordinary chat: the rapid growth of economy in the past China comes largely from the demographic dividend, but now the demographic dividend has disappeared, Chinese economy must find a new growth engine (for example, otherwise it will be difficult to continue the reform of the bonus). The relationship between population and economic growth has always been a hot issue in china. One of the most important Chinese to promote economic growth policy, is known to the world, with no predecessors of the "one child" family planning policy. However, the first thing we need to make clear on this issue is that there is no simple relationship between a country’s total population and its growth rate and economic growth (i.e., per capita GDP growth). What is the "demographic dividend"? Whether it is a large or small country has a rapid growth, but also have slow growth, this fact should not be difficult to understand. But why population growth does not necessarily lead to a decline in per capita GDP growth? After all, China’s strict family planning policy is not to promote economic growth? Moreover, given the same GDP growth rate, the lower the rate of population growth, per capita GDP growth will not be faster? Here, the reader should note that such a fact: over the past 30 years, China’s coastal provinces (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong) due to rapid economic development, more opportunities, attracted many provinces into the population, the resident population growth rate above the national average, and their per capita (according to GDP resident population) the average growth rate is too fast to say most of the Inland provinces. So what is the demographic dividend? Simply speaking, with the decline of a country fertility, dependent children accounted for the proportion of the population will decline in the working age population, the proportion of the total population will rise, at this time, even if the labor productivity (i.e. each labor force output) unchanged, according to the total population of per capita output will increase, change the population structure of the economic growth benefits can be called "direct demographic dividend"; in addition, the dependency ratio decreased, household savings may rise, the society can be used for fixed capital investment and education investment money may also increase, which leads to the improvement of labor productivity, which brings the benefits of economic growth can be called "indirect demographic dividend". However, the demographic dividend is not sustainable: the decline in fertility and the extension of life expectancy will eventually lead to an increase in the proportion of the elderly population, so that the dependency ratio has stopped falling, rising. In fact, China has reached its trough in 2013, which means that the demographic dividend has disappeared and has started to turn into a so-called "demographic debt."". In China, the decline in fertility相关的主题文章: