Stock and bond markets are more sensitive to

Stock market and bond market liquidity is more sensitive to We want you! The first 2016 China Potter Rockefeller award officially started! Funds, insurance, brokerage and other financial institutions, information management capabilities which is better? Please click [vote], select the strongest institutions in your heart! National Day, risk assets upward, strength of commodities was significantly stronger than the stock index, hedge assets bonds fell after the first rise, down tempo is more severe, which is directly related to the recent global central bank liquidity margin is expected to become increasingly intensified tight. At present, the domestic macro environment is the weak economy has stabilized, inflation picked up, the policy is expected to structural combination tight. From the macro perspective of aggregate demand, benefit of goods, stock market neutral, bad bond market, but the stock market earnings and commodity prices are expected to still need to be combined with the expected marginal changes in the supply side, of which 11 months late may become a supply driven weakening of the intermittent period of time node. Recently, the marginal changes in the macroeconomic environment is mainly reflected in three points, one is the smooth running of the economy, the manufacturing sector in September rose for the first time the growth rate of investment during the year, the release of positive signals, the low base effect in the four quarter integrated real estate and infrastructure, the fourth quarter economic margin than expected downward pressure and temperature. Under the conditions of external political risk control, the annual growth rate of GDP or 6.6%-6.7%, the economy has not yet reached the time to touch the bottom line of the economic zone again. Two is significantly higher than expected inflation data, the CPI-PPI difference significantly increased to 1.8%, the lowest in 2012. PPI fast convergence path but significantly faster than CPI, shows that the pressure of excess capacity, enterprise cost transfer capacity is limited, PPI gains continuity and space will be restricted, the existence of PPI supply driven price ceiling. In addition, the difference in CPI-PPI continuous convergence of monetary policy will also constrain, during the first two rounds of 2004 – 2006, 2010 – 2011 CPI-PPI negative, monetary policy is tightening trend, while the 1999 – 2000 period, monetary policy comparison, halt the troops and wait, the current monetary policy state similar to 1999 – 2000. The three is expected to strengthen the tight liquidity margin, reflected in the establishment of a global central bank monetary policy easing the bottom line and to control the superposition of the smooth operation of the economy and inflation picked up expected macro base expected, the fourth quarter of a high probability at the stage of the preliminary market correction process caused by negative interest rate bonds over loose expectations ". Considering the difference between sensitivity and driving force, the liquidity of stock and bond marginal tight stage impact significantly stronger than commodities, which bonds more than the stock index. However, tight liquidity margin in the fourth quarter, does not mean that the establishment of the trend in the global liquidity inflection point, long-term growth rate of stagnation and low base background, the trend of inflection point liquidity financial risks are too high, therefore, the probability of mobility in the spring city stage, the liquidity is tight and marginal marginal loose are stage and moderate, under a policy of marginal partial loose expected to trigger financial risks in reproduction, or under the economy once again touched the bottom line of the boundary. The next two months, the marginal risk factors of the macro environment in China M1-M2 convergence rhythm, the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to honor and may be the United States, Italy’s Political Theory相关的主题文章: