Shao Yu globalization has ended will see more black swan-yyets.com

Shao Yu: globalization has ended will see more black swan from the global macro point of view, is actually very simple, globalization has come to an end. The last round of globalization is the globalization of 3, it has two basic structure. The first is in the whole manufacturing industry chain, is a structure of the food chain: to provide such a basic input by the resource in bulk raw materials, China provide production and manufacturing, including Germany, Japan, Southeast Asian economies do support, and then by the American and British consumer end into final consumption. This double put money in the inside of superposition, dominated by the dollar currency, the whole cycle perfectly put together like blood. However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, told us that this game is over, we will see more of the "black swan". For example, following the US presidential election of November 8th, whether it is Trump or Hilary, will be on the global economy to form a larger disturbance, especially when Trump president. By December 4th, Italy will decide whether its constitutional amendment will continue, if not successful, it means that it hindered the reform. At the same time, also added height of Deutsche Bank and Italy banking bad debts and is facing all sorts of litigation. At present, the European economy is still weak, but has entered the stage of invalid loose. The euro zone in 2016 two quarter seasonally adjusted QoQ annualized GDP growth of 1.2%, significantly lower than the 2.2% growth in the first quarter, the recovery momentum weakened. The production side to maintain the trend of expansion, but exports and consumption remain low and increasingly frequent terrorist attacks against the great investment and consumer confidence in the euro zone, the influence of the British back in Europe will also drag on the economic recovery in Europe in the next period of time. The next year, the most dangerous moment will begin. Because the next European three large economies – Germany, France and Belgium will be a new round of elections next year, the political cycle, there is not a small probability, the survival of the euro and the European Union will encounter a fatal challenge. What will the impact be? I’m afraid no one can foresee. But it tells us a profound truth, globalization has completely reversed. Please prepare for risk, please hold on, hold on. Now we see not only the one or two black swan, saw a whole black swan lake, the lake is full of black swan, which is also the essence of the phenomenon. If we look carefully, will find that the financial crisis has now been 8 years after the two world war any mainstream economic crisis and recession for no more than 7.5 years, some things are changed. Don’t think that as long as after a certain fiscal stimulus, some money, or do some so-called structural reforms, you can return to the growth path of traditional or golden growth period. If you have this fantasy, either you or your childish, lack of insight. This is the reality. From now on, the financial crisis is more like a chain store, the first store was opened in the US, the main reason is that the household sector balance sheet collapse, because leverage is too high. Then the crisis chain store to Europe, performance)

邵宇:全球化已结束 将看到的是更多黑天鹅   从全球宏观来看,其实很简单,全球化已经结束了。   上一轮全球化是全球化3.0,它有两个基本结构。首先是在整个制造业产业链上,是一个食物链的结构:由资源国提供大宗原材料这样一个基本的输入,中国提供生产和制造,包括德国、日本、东南亚经济体做支撑,再由美国、英国等消费国完成最终消费。这里面再叠加的货币的双重投放,以美元为主货币,像血液一样把整个循环完美地穿在一起。但是,2008年全球金融危机以后的形势,告诉我们这个游戏已经结束了,我们将看到的是更多的“黑天鹅”。   比如说,接下来11月8日的美国总统大选,不管是特朗普上还是希拉里上,都会对全球经济形成一个较大的扰动,特别是特朗普当上总统的话。而到12月4日,意大利将决定它的修宪是否将继续,如果没有成功的话,则意味着它的改革受阻。同时,还叠加了德意志银行以及意大利银行业的高度坏账和正面临的种种诉讼。   目前的欧洲经济仍然疲弱,但宽松已经进入无效阶段。欧元区2016年二季度GDP季调环比折年增长1.2%,大幅低于一季度2.2%的增速,复苏动能减弱。生产端维持扩张趋势,但出口与消费保持低迷,日益频发的恐怖袭击极大打击了欧元区的投资及消费者信心,英国退欧的影响也将在未来一段时间内拖累欧洲经济复苏。   到了明年,最危险的时刻会开始。因为明年欧洲的三个大型经济体——德国、法国和比利时将进行新一轮政治周期的选举,明年存在不小的概率是,欧元和欧盟的生存将遭遇致命的挑战。这会带来什么影响?恐怕没有人可以预见。但是它告诉我们一个深刻的道理,全球化已经全面逆转。请大家做好风险准备,请大家坐稳、抓牢。   现在我们看到的不是一两只黑天鹅,看到的是一整个黑天鹅湖,湖上全部是黑天鹅,这就是现象,也是实质。如果我们认真看,会发现,金融危机到现在已经有8年时间,二次世界大战以后任何一次主流经济危机和金融衰退没有超过7.5年的,有些东西是发生了根本的变化。不要觉得只要经过一定的印钞、一定的财政刺激,或者做一些所谓的结构化改革,就可以回到传统的增长路径或是黄金增长时期中。如果你还抱有这种幻想,要么你幼稚,要么你缺乏洞察力。这就是现实。   从现在来看,金融危机更像是一家连锁店,这个连锁店的第一家分店是在美国开的,主要原因是它的居民部门的资产负债表全线崩溃,因为杠杆太高。然后这个危机连锁店开到了欧洲,表现为主权债务的危机,也就意味着国家资产负债表的崩溃,也即财政的杠杆太高。然后金融危机又来到了新兴市场,新兴市场的原罪是借入了大量的储备型货币,而同时掏出相应的本币来作为支持。如果一旦美联储加息(目前看12月份加息的概率是70%),这些资本会疯狂逃离新兴市场,这就有可能会引发货币危机。而在这个过程中,不断膨胀的中央银行资产负债表最终将面临一个“审判”。它将以什么样的形式爆发出来,我们并不清楚,但是我们看到英镑的大幅波动、黄金升值以及人民币作为储备货币的备胎加入SDR,正是这样一些危机的联动反应。所以,请坐稳抓牢。   (作者系东方证券首席经济学家)相关的主题文章: