Currencies volatility in the stock market stable asset shortage situation – Sohu financial investmen-www.555kfc.com

Currencies volatility in the stock market stable asset shortage pushed investment changes of Sohu financial management (original title: currencies volatility in the stock market stable "asset shortage" pushed investment situation since October, the dollar), the exchange rate of RMB consecutive trading days fell sharply. A stock market but did not reappear in January this year the RMB exchange rate plummeted during the downturn trend. Analysts said that in the context of the current property market regulation, the domestic RMB assets "allocation shortage" effect to be amplified. The monetary environment is difficult to "drain" loose bond Daniel touch the top pressure increasing, while the real estate asset bubble risk gradually, asset allocation categories of good stock market is expected to move round. Exchange rate impulse superimposed "asset shortage" in the recent rise in the dollar index in the background, the RMB exchange rate since October has continued to weaken. This Tuesday (October 25th), the RMB against the U.S. dollar spot exchange rate closed at 6.7778, and hit a low since September 2010 in fourth consecutive trading days since October, the cumulative depreciation rate has reached 1.59%. At an annualized rate, the depreciation rate is over 19% annually. Despite the recent decline in the RMB exchange rate for half a month is obviously better than the euro, sterling and other major non US global currency, but the RMB exchange rate is still in rapid decline, largely stimulated all types of market players purchase impulse, and increase the capital outflow pressure. The central bank released the latest data on display before the end of 9, foreign exchange fell 337 billion 500 million yuan, for the eleventh consecutive month of decline. The State Administration of foreign exchange on the weekend released data show that in September 2016, the commercial bank settlement 806 billion yuan (equivalent to $120 billion 800 million), sales of 995 billion 700 million yuan (equivalent to 149 billion 200 million U.S. dollars), foreign exchange deficit 189 billion 700 million yuan (equivalent to $28 billion 400 million). This data is significantly higher than the August single month foreign exchange deficit (August deficit scale of 63 billion 400 million yuan or 9 billion 500 million U.S. dollars). In addition, market participants further pointed out that, taking into account the 8 9 February, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar the actual decline is not obvious, since October the RMB exchange rate decline, decline could significantly enlarge the foreign exchange deficit, foreign exchange. Gao Hua Securities said that only in the two quarter estimates of capital outflows, when a quarter of residents to buy foreign exchange assets, foreign currency debt rose and foreign investors to buy renminbi assets (mainly through foreign direct investment) in the two quarter of cross-border capital scale changes, respectively accounted for about -1600 billion, +40 billion and +470 billion dollars. This estimate shows that residents continue to buy foreign exchange assets is still the main reason for the capital outflow since the two quarter. Analysts pointed out that in the regulation of the property market bubble risk and increase in the background, the bond market has integrated pre pull up approximation to an all-time high, the second and third quarters of the whole stock market performance just passable in terms of the previous period, "deepening the asset shortage" and the categories of assets earn money effect loss, are significantly increased for all kinds of capital purchase impulse and the outflow pressure. From the data of foreign exchange sale and foreign exchange in the past few months, this is reflected in the individual sector.

汇市波动股市平稳 “资产荒”催动投资变局-搜狐理财  (原标题:汇市波动股市平稳 “资产荒”催动投资变局)   10月以来,美元走强,人民币汇率连续多个交易日出现大幅下挫。A股市场却没有再现今年1月人民币汇率急跌时的低迷走势。分析人士表示,在当前楼市调控的背景下,国内人民币资产“配置荒”效应得以放大。货币环境难现“放水式”宽松,债市大牛摸顶压力有增无减,同时房地产资产泡沫风险逐步显现,大类资产配置轮动有望利好股票市场。   购汇冲动叠加“资产荒”   在美元指数近期一路攀升的背景下,人民币汇率进入10月以来持续走软。本周二(10月25日),人民币对美元即期汇价收报6.7778,在连续第四个交易日创出2010年9月以来新低的同时,10月以来的累计贬值幅度已高达1.59%。以年率计算,这一贬值速度年化超过19%。尽管人民币汇率最近大半个月跌幅明显好于欧元、英镑等全球其他主要非美货币,但人民币汇率快速走软,仍然在很大程度上刺激了各类市场主体的购汇冲动,并加大了资本外流的压力。   央行日前公布的最新数据显示,9月末外汇占款环比下降3375亿元人民币,为连续第11个月下滑。国家外汇管理局上周末发布的数据显示,2016年9月,商业银行结汇8060亿元人民币(等值1208亿美元),售汇9957亿元人民币(等值1492亿美元),结售汇逆差达1897亿元人民币(等值284亿美元)。这一数据大幅高于8月单月的结售汇逆差(8月逆差规模为634亿元人民币或95亿美元)。此外,市场人士进一步指出,考虑到8、9两月人民币对美元汇率实际跌幅并不明显,10月至今人民币汇率的急跌,可能大幅放大结售汇逆差、外汇占款的下降。   高华证券表示,仅以二季度资本外流的构成测算来看,当季居民买入外汇资产、企业外币债务上升和外国投资者买入人民币资产(主要通过外商直接投资)在二季度跨境资本变动规模中,分别占到约-1600亿美元、+40亿美元和+470亿美元。这一估算显示,居民持续买入外汇资产仍是二季度至今资本外流的主要原因。   分析人士指出,在楼市调控且泡沫风险加大的背景下,综合前期债券市场已拉涨逼近至历史高点、二三季度股票市场整体表现差强人意等方面来看,前一时期“资产荒”的深化以及大类资产赚钱效应缺失,正在显著加大各类资本的购汇冲动和外流压力。从过去几个月的结售汇和外汇占款数据看,这一点在个人部门上表现的尤为突出。   预期明朗助力A股走稳   在人民币阶段性走软预期不断持续的背景下,近期国内金融市场尤其是股票市场的整体表现大大好于早前部分悲观派市场人士的预期。上周人民币连续贬值,对美元中间价、即期汇价双双跌破6.75整数关口,但国内股票、商品市场仍延续震荡上涨格局,人民币贬值对国内金融市场的扰动持续钝化。虽然上周一主板市场在B股暴跌的影响下出现下挫,不过随后的市场运行情况显示,人民币贬值与B股遭遇抛售对股票市场的负面影响仅是昙花一现。上周二A股不仅收复失地,随后还实现了全周上涨。在本周前两个交易日,沪深股市也延续了放量上攻的运行格局。   整体来看,相对于人民币汇率有些令人心跳的走贬势头,A股市场表现可谓波澜不惊。在许多专业投资机构的眼里,人民币贬值不再带来“狼来了”的恐慌情绪,反而是预期兑现之后的“稳如磐石”。   上海某基金公司研究总监表示,人民币汇率剧烈波动会影响A股预期,从而造成市场大幅震荡,这导致去年和今年初汇率和A股市场的联动。不过,时至今日,尽管人民币对美元近期出现持续贬值,但这是多重因素造成的,市场对此早有预期,且多数机构认为贬值的幅度和节奏可控,A股并不会像此前一样出现剧烈波动。不仅如此,由于人民币适度贬值有利于促进出口,对改善经济增长有一定的帮助,也有助于改善部分上市公司的基本面状况,蕴含了不少投资机会,值得机构深度挖掘。   私募基金凯石投资则指出,总体看,上周虽然公布了很多经济数据,汇率也在节后贬值幅度超过1%,但市场似乎非常“淡定”,并没有出现大幅波动,这背后的主要原因是“预期稳定”。目前,市场对经济基本面、资金面、政策、汇率等因素都形成了相对稳定的预期,如经济短期依然处于底部、资金面保持稳定、货币政策稳健、汇率贬值但透明可控等。在稳定的预期下,市场短期仍以震荡为主。   不过,也有基金经理指出,虽然目前市场对汇率不会持续大幅波动形成一致预期,但由于过去两年“黑天鹅事件”事件频频发生,因此,对下一阶段的汇率走势仍需密切关注,不可掉以轻心。如果再度出现超预期的汇率波动,A股也可能暴露出新的风险,需要投资者高度警惕。   整体而言,在楼市调控政策明显趋于负面、货币环境难以大规模宽松的背景下,一方面房地产泡沫风险有望逐步得到控制;另一方面,包括债券等固定收益类资产偏低的收益率水平,对许多资金的吸引力在不断下降。在此背景下,作为潜在“资金池”的股票市场,一旦显露出赚钱效应,对各类资金的吸引力将增强。   掘金外向型公司正当时   在A股市场的投资机会方面,分析人士指出,人民币持续贬值虽会引发部分资本外流,给股市带来一定估值压力。但对于主业以进出口为主的上市公司,海外资产和营收占比较高的公司,以及内地、香港两地公司仍可能迎来利好。在一些基金经理眼里,人民币贬值对于部分上市公司是明显的利好,这将给投资者提供“结构性”投资机会。   前海开源外向企业股票基金拟任基金经理苏天杉表示,中国的出口企业将直接受益于人民币贬值。首先,人民币贬值有助于出口企业国际竞争力的增强;其次,出口企业的收入主要以美元为主,美元升值使得出口企业以人民币计价的收入增加。   苏天杉指出,中国的经济增长速度仍然远超世界平均水平,在资本市场,A股的长期回报率一定会体现出这种差别。他表示,最近两三年非常看好在A股上市的外向出口企业。这些企业不但已经形成规模,而且都是全球某个细分市场的佼佼者。这些企业的业绩有望持续增长。   上海某基金经理向中国证券报记者表示,在人民币贬值的背景下,除了出口业务占比较高的上市公司值得关注外,拥有海外业务的上市公司更是直接受益者,其投资机会更明显。以承揽国际工程业务的上市公司为例,由于这些公司持有较多的美元计价净资产,因此,人民币对美元贬值会使其产生大量汇兑收益。此外,由于国际工程结算一般以美元计价,而其成本端却以人民币计价,人民币对美元贬值不仅有助于提高项目的毛利率,还有助于提高国际工程业务的竞争力。相关的主题文章: