China Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has opened the first level response mechanism to stab-zhuxianduowan

The Commission even on stability of coal production Sihui has launched a response mechanism of tight supply of coal price rose four in September 28th and even the NDRC meeting, Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal coal prices had fallen to 560~570 yuan, for the first quarter of 2014 to the highest level on each reporter Feng Biao the afternoon of September 27th, the national development and Reform Commission convened a number of departments, security held in winter coal supply conference. "Daily economic news" reporter noted that, on the 27 day this time, since September, the national development and Reform Commission has held four meetings for coal production, and has started two times coal production plan. However, the market does not seem to be buying the positive signals from the policy. In September 28th, the steam coal price index around Bohai continued to rise. Information Analyst Liu Dongna told the "daily economic news" reporter: "as far as I know, the meeting on the 27 plan is the daily increase of 1 million tons of coal production. But there is no specific plan for which companies will increase production and when to increase production. Coal storage in winter is coming, the market supply is still insufficient, the latter coal prices still have rising potential." Some analysts pointed out that the current irrational irrational factors in the coal market, the next period of time, with the disappearance of these interference factors, the local coal supply tight situation is expected to ease, September market expectations index will fall back to negative range again. In fact, in the first half of this month, the national development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has started the coal production increase plan for the two time. At the beginning of September, the national development and Reform Commission with the relevant departments to develop a stable supply of coal, coal prices rose too fast suppression plan, and start the two level response, increase coal production of about 300 thousand tons. In September 23rd, the national development and Reform Commission also launched a first level response to increase capacity of 500 thousand tons per day. But the market does not seem to buy it. In September 28th, the steam coal price index around Bohai continued to rise. Among them, Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal steam coal price range has rushed to 560~570 yuan, up 1.8%, an increase of 43.04%. "Daily economic news" reporter found that this price has been the highest level since the first quarter of 2014. Data show that, in the context of production capacity, 1~8 months, the national coal output of 21.8 tons, down 10.2%; coal shipments of 12.1 tons of railway, down 10.4%. By the end of 8, the coal enterprises have stored 1.25 tons of coal, a decrease of 9% compared with the same period, and 49 million 930 thousand tons of coal stored in the national key power plants, which can be used for 13 days. However, the NDRC said in the September 23 journal article, the current through the reduction of production and management of illegal construction control of about 10 tons (coal) production capacity, this part of the production capacity is controllable. Next, depending on the changes in the coal market, if (price) is still continuing, will increase the amount of advanced production of science, to ensure the stable supply of coal. It is worth noting that, after the national development and Reform Commission announced the three level response mechanism is the daily increase of coal production capacity of 500 thousand tons, 300 thousand tons and 200 thousand tons. At present, the first level theory has been launched

发改委连开四会议稳煤炭增产 已启动一级响应机制   供应偏紧煤价涨 发改委连开四会议稳产   9月28日,秦皇岛港5500大卡动力煤价格已冲至560~570元,为2014年一季度来最高水平   ◎每经记者 冯彪   9月27日下午,国家发改委召集多个部门,召开保障冬季煤炭稳定供应的会议。《每日经济新闻》记者注意到,算上27日这次,9月以来,国家发改委已为煤炭增产召开了四次会议,并已两次启动煤炭增产预案。   不过,对于政策释放出的积极信号,市场似乎并不买账。9月28日,环渤海动力煤价格指数继续上涨。   卓创资讯分析师刘冬娜告诉《每日经济新闻》记者:“据我所知,27日的会议计划是每天增加100万吨的煤炭产量。但是哪些企业增产,何时增产还没有具体的方案。煤炭冬储即将到来,市场供给仍显不足,后期煤价依然有上涨潜力。”   亦有分析指出,目前的煤炭市场存在非理性因素干扰,今后一段时间,随着这些干扰因素的消失,局部煤炭供应偏紧状况有望缓解,9月份市场预期指数将再次回落到负值区间。   已启动一级响应机制   实际上,在此前半个月内,国家发改委已两次启动煤炭增产预案。9月初国家发改委同有关部门制定了稳定煤炭供应、抑制煤炭价格过快上涨的预案,并启动二级响应,日增加煤炭产量30万吨左右。9月23日,国家发改委又启动了一级响应,拟日增加产能规模50万吨。   但市场对此似乎并未买账。9月28日,环渤海动力煤价格指数继续保持上涨态势。其中,秦皇岛港5500大卡动力煤价格区间已冲至560~570元,环比上涨1.8%,同比上涨43.04%。《每日经济新闻》记者对比发现,这个价位已经是2014年一季度以来的最高水平。   数据显示,在去产能的背景下,1~8月,全国煤炭产量21.8亿吨,同比下降10.2%;铁路煤炭发运12.1亿吨,同比下降10.4%。8月末,煤炭企业存煤1.25亿吨,同比下降9%,全国重点电厂存煤4993万吨,可用13天。   不过,国家发改委于9月23日刊文表示,全国目前通过减量化生产和治理违法违规建设控制了约10亿吨(煤炭)产能,这部分产能是可控的。下一步,视煤炭市场变化情况,如果(涨价)情况仍在延续,将科学加大先进产能投放量,确保煤炭稳定供应。   值得注意的是,此前国家发改委公布的三级响应机制分别是每日增加煤炭产能50万吨、30万吨和20万吨。目前已经启动了一级响应,如果继续增产,原来的三级响应机制恐怕也会随之改变。   对于煤炭价格走势,目前市场看法不一。   刘冬娜向《每日经济新闻》记者表示:“即使国家发改委确认每日增产100万吨,恐仍难以缓解供应短缺局面。煤炭冬储即将到来,市场供给仍显不足,后期煤价依然有上涨潜力。我们估计,10月上旬动力煤价格就可能上冲至600元 吨。”   中国煤炭工业协会的一份研报则认为,预计9月份煤炭产量环比将有所增加,而商品煤消费量将出现季节性回落,电厂存煤基本稳定,预计全社会库存或将有所回升。   上述研报进一步指出,当前,煤炭市场心理预期逆转在一定程度上存在非理性成分,忽略了阶段性、偶发性因素的叠加影响,偏离了供需基本面的真实情况。今后一段时间,随着季节性需求回落,洪涝灾害的阶段性影响消退,局部煤炭供应偏紧状况有望缓解,将使市场主体的心理预期趋于理性,判断9月份市场预期指数将再次回落到负值区间。   未来或放开更多产能   虽然9月以来,国家发改委已多次开会增加煤炭供应,但是在业内人士看来,煤炭限产的原则仍没有改变。刘冬娜认为,目前(国家发改委)主要是要神华集团等大型煤企增加产量,并没有将现有的276个工作日的限产原则完全放开,限产政策依旧执行。   《每日经济新闻》记者了解到,神华集团的14座煤矿被允许最大增产279万吨,其中神华准能集团的哈尔乌素露天煤矿被允许增产48万吨。另外,伊泰和华电等集团旗下部分煤矿也获准增加产量。有分析指出,受益于煤炭价格上涨,加之目前第一波被允许增加煤炭产量的企业以神华、中煤等大型企业为主,因此神华等大型煤企会是价格上涨的最大受惠者。   在刘冬娜看来,到了目前这个阶段,只通过大企业来调控煤炭价格恐怕效果不足,所以国家发改委可能会准许部分先进产能增产。   那么,怎么样才算是先进产能呢?记者注意到,9月8日,河北省发改委公布了《煤炭先进产能评价依据(暂行)》。河北省发改委官网显示,该评价依据是受钢铁煤炭行业化解过剩产能和脱困发展工作部际联席会议委托,由中国煤炭工业协会制定。记者注意到,上述评价依据从机械化程度、资源利用率、安全生产、能耗和环保、产品质量五个方面界定了先进产能的标准。   “现在保证冬季用煤的供应量很重要,今年还有气象预报显示冬季会出现极端天气。目前来看,既想保证煤炭供应量,又想守住276个工作日的限产原则,恐怕很难兼顾。预计国家发改委还会继续释放煤炭产量,让更多企业根据市场需求来规划产量。”刘冬娜说。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: